Hva driver Nord-Korea med?

For å være ærlig vet jeg ikke helt selv. Det er tydelig at ting ikke står bra til der og at Kim derfor nok har god grunn til å prøve å lage bråk for å unngå at noen utfordrer ham på hjemmeplan. Anne Applebaum har en annen teori om hvorfor Kim stadig sitter ved makten og kan lage bråk:

China is the one country that actually has influence over North Korea. Not only is China the only country to maintain frequent diplomatic and security contacts with North Korea; China could topple the North Korean regime tomorrow if it wanted to. China could cut off North Korea's oil. China could shut the border to trade. Or China could take the opposite tactic and open the border: Refugees would flee, and the regime would crumble, much as East Germany did 20 years ago this summer. To put it differently, China has more influence over the North Korean regime than all the other U.N. Security Council members put together, but it does not use this influence to stop the nuclear program. Instead, it has maintained trade relations, kept the oil flowing, built up its border fences, and paid lip service to the international efforts to block the North Korean nuclear program (the Chinese claimed to have learned about the recent nuclear test an hour in advance, which no one believes), meanwhile hunkering down to watch what happens.

Formålet med dette må i så fall være

there are good reasons for the Chinese to prod Kim Jong-il to keep those missiles coming. By permitting North Korea to rattle its sabers, the Chinese can monitor Obama's reaction to a military threat without having to deploy a threat themselves. They can see how serious the new American administration is about controlling the spread of nuclear weapons without having to risk sanctions or international condemnation of their own nuclear industry. They can distract and disturb the new administration without harming Chinese-American economic relations, which are crucial to their own regime's stability.

Som sagt, teorien er interessant, jeg er ikke sikker på om jeg tror på den, jeg vet at Kina og Nord-Korea har hatt store samarbeidsproblemer før og at Kim har vært oppfattet som et forferdelig gnagsår. Det er også ganske vanlig å overvurdere innflytelsen stormakter har over sine mindre klienter. Tenk bare på all frustrasjonen Castro gav Bresjnev, Mubarak gir amerikanerne. Det er noe med disse småstatsdiktatorene med enorme ego som gjør at de vanskelig lar seg styre.

P.S. For en veldig lang og rystende gjennomgang av fenomenet Nord-Korea anbefaler jeg Under the Loving Care of the Fatherly Leader: North Korea and the Kim Dynasty